SuperDuper-Tennis Archive

Sunday, November 02, 2008

ATP BNP Paribas Masters, Paris 2008 (Indoor Carpet) - FINAL

Sunday, November 02, 2008 | Posted by SuperDuper | | Edit Post


ATP BNP Paribas Masters, Paris 2008 (Indoor Carpet) - FINAL

Comparative.Excel.Program

Final Winner

1st Set

2nd Set

3rd Set

L1 >>

-5,7

L1W2 >>

1,8

Potential

W1 >>

16,2

SETS

Nalbandian David

43,1

41,1

W1L2 >>

2,4

1

2

Tsonga Jo-Wilfried

43,9

31,5

L1W2 >>

23,2

2

0

L1 >>

8,1

W1L2 >>

8,2

W1 >>

2,8

SUM

Winner%

General Dynamics per Set

values

Prediction

Nalbandian David

43,1

41,1

62,4

3,0

149,6

54,5%

Tsonga Jo-Wilfried

43,9

31,5

20,2

29,3

124,9

45,5%


This is the new model of CEP that is already preparing in background. Yet, it can't be relished because there are many players who don't have enough database for this scope.

The new model will be more helpful for trading purposes, because it gives a more accurate dynamic response for each case scenario. For instance, a player has the tend to start powerfully the match taking the 1st set, but after that his momentun is going down losing the 2nd. So, if a player has the tend of suffering this downtrend, then it could be a good chance to repeat it if he faces a player with an exact different trend, to lose 1st set and after increase his momentum taking the 2nd set!

The above will be more understandable when it will be shown in the practise. Until then, I'll help you read the above table by giving you the descriptions of each initial:

  • W1 = It means [Won 1st set]. In the right box of this symbol you will see the 2nd set's dynamic of the player who won the 1st set.
  • L1 = It means [Lost 1st set]. In the right box of this symbol you will see the 2nd set's dynamic of the player who lost the 1st set.
  • W1L2 = It means [Won 1st set and Lost 2nd set]. In the right box of this symbol you will see the 3rd set's dynamic of the player who won the 1st set and lost the 2nd set.
  • L1W2 = It means [Lost 1st set and Won 2nd set]. In the right box of this symbol you will see the 3rd set's dynamic of the player who lost the 1st set and won the 2nd set.

Giving an example of new model, I will try to describe the cases scenario of Paris final.

[1st case scenario] => As it shows, Nalbandian has better dynamic in 1st set [41,1], and so, he could take the 1st set . Then, his W1 [16,2] shows that Argentian has better 2nd set dynamic against Tsonga's L1 [8,1], giving a signal of a 2-0 set win for Nalbandian. BUT, Tsonga's positive L1 could be crucial in 2nd set, even if it's minor than Nalbandian's W1 {Oftenly, when a player lost 1st set, he has negative L1, that it shows a continuing downtrend and signal for a potential 0-2 set loss}. In the case of Tsonga, we see a positive L1 that -maybe- it could be enough to give him the 2nd set! The estimation of 1st case scenario is that even if Nalbandian take the 1st set, there are good chances for Tsonga to tie the sets! So, there is not good option to buy a 2-0 set win for Nalbandian!

If Tsonga tie the sets, then you can see that his L1W2 [23,2] surpasses by far Nalbandian's W1L2 [2,4], giving a clear signal of a 2-1 set win for the Frenchman! So, if you bet on Tsonga when he is 1 set down, you may have good chances to make some really good profits!!!

[2nd case scenario] => Of course, Tsonga has his chances to take the 1st set. If he win the 1st set, his W1 [2,8] does not look impressive but is still positive. The interesting is that Nalbandian's L1 [-5,7] is giving a negative dynamic, signaling that Argentianian has a real problem if he lost 1st set! The conclusion of 2nd case scenario is that Tsonga could win by 2-0 set if he manage to take the 1st set! So, a bet on 2-0 set win for Tsonga is an interesting option.


ATTENTION: CEP IS NOT NOSTRADAMUS, BUT A PROGRAM THAT ATTEMPTS TO ESTIMATE/PREDICT THE CASE SCENARIOS OF THE MATCH. SO, THE CASE OF FAILURE DOING THAT IS ALWAYS ON THE PLAN.

Until the beginning of the new tennis year, I will prepare a full description of CEP, in order to be more scrutable to all of you.


***(Please, excume me for my english but it is not my mother tongue language)


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7 comments:

Punisher20 said...

Chris....your english is excellent...I'm glad that you doing such a good job and still improving it.Best of luck...I hope to see your predictions for the champions tournament(atp and wta)

November 3, 2008 at 2:54 PM
SuperDuper said...

Thank you my friend!

Today I will give the first matches for Doha!

Hope to close the year in style!

;))

November 3, 2008 at 2:58 PM
Anonymous said...

Your table is interesting, i think i will continue to check and read about your progress, awesome work =)

February 26, 2009 at 2:00 PM
SuperDuper said...

Thank you for your encouraging comment anonymus...

February 26, 2009 at 4:02 PM
Anonymous said...

Hey Chris I am really impressed with your breakdown of each match. Can you go into more detail on how this all works. Would like to try my hand using it for football as well as tennis. Thanks.

March 27, 2009 at 6:51 PM
SuperDuper said...

Hi Keith!

If you start from the scratch a program, how easy it will be for you to say everything to others?

An innovation must always be secret!

Keep in touch my friend!

March 28, 2009 at 12:55 AM
Keith said...

very true mate. keep up the good work.

March 29, 2009 at 12:15 AM
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